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Jan 30, 2013
01/13
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the reality is, as steve pointed out, the economy is not contracting at all. the inventory numbers flip all over the place. think about this going forward. other than the drag from government, there's probably the biggest opportunity in the last six years to see the u.s. economy hit on all four cylinders. and if you expand that to implications in asia, in europe, you have the possibility, in my case the likelihood of one of the biggest expansions in world economic activity since '05, '06. so this is exciting. >> jerry, i'm sorry, forgive me. so you're saying, this is a very exciting situation, because the u.s. economy didn't grow at all in the fourth quarter, therefore, we can go all guns blazing moving forward? that seems extraordinary. an extraordinary comparison to make. >> right. remember this, simon, stock investors are buying companies based on their ability to earn anywhere from a year to three years out. our focus isn't on how many inventories were liquidated in the fourth quarter. our focus, and the focus on the stock market getting through 1400, 1500
the reality is, as steve pointed out, the economy is not contracting at all. the inventory numbers flip all over the place. think about this going forward. other than the drag from government, there's probably the biggest opportunity in the last six years to see the u.s. economy hit on all four cylinders. and if you expand that to implications in asia, in europe, you have the possibility, in my case the likelihood of one of the biggest expansions in world economic activity since '05, '06. so...
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Jan 31, 2013
01/13
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steve? >> yeah, melissa, i can't help myself. isn't of the than something comes along that dramatically changes the look of some of the long-term economic charts we look at every day. the early dividend payments of december made from all the companies paid ahead of the fiscal cliff fears and tax hikes, they have done just that. get to that chart in just a second. first, i want to show you the data here, personal income in december up a whopping 2.6% but spending up only 0.2%. well, it wasn't wages that drove personal income. what was it? it was dividends, up 33%. because that huge dividend payment wasn't spent, the savings rate surges 6 1/2% to 4.1%. here is the chart we are talking about. dividends go along, they surge, in the 50 year of data that i have there, there's nothing like these two points in any of the other points of time there the first payment analyzez out to 235 billion. ahead of the tax years, 268 billion in december of 2012. of course, we will pay for this surge, the surge in dividends at & ul rate, borrow from t
steve? >> yeah, melissa, i can't help myself. isn't of the than something comes along that dramatically changes the look of some of the long-term economic charts we look at every day. the early dividend payments of december made from all the companies paid ahead of the fiscal cliff fears and tax hikes, they have done just that. get to that chart in just a second. first, i want to show you the data here, personal income in december up a whopping 2.6% but spending up only 0.2%. well, it...
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Jan 25, 2013
01/13
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steve is managing director at webb bush securities. steve, great to have you with us. >> good morning. >> i've been hearing in the marketplaces that the volatility index is so low, that people can remain confident in staying long, because they can buy cheap protection. i'm wondering what your take is on these market highs here. >> well, certainly that's a contributing factor. the cost of protection is very, very low. but i think the biggest factor is we essentially have zero interest rates, and essentially have very expansionary monetary policies virtually worldwide in developed markets. this is providing a tremendous floor underneath risk to assets and will continue to do so as long as these policies remain in place. >> what do you make of the components that are pushing the markets to these highs? i mean, our previous guest making a point that midcaps, smallcaps trading close to record highs. we're making this move without a big market leader in apple. >> well, the most risky assets are doing the best. the smaller cap names, that's o
steve is managing director at webb bush securities. steve, great to have you with us. >> good morning. >> i've been hearing in the marketplaces that the volatility index is so low, that people can remain confident in staying long, because they can buy cheap protection. i'm wondering what your take is on these market highs here. >> well, certainly that's a contributing factor. the cost of protection is very, very low. but i think the biggest factor is we essentially have zero...
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Jan 28, 2013
01/13
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i wish they would do things more like steve jobs. tim cook was great in the conference call in one respect and said we could do a lot of things to create revenue and grab market share. that's not what apple does. i agree with drew's point, i like to hear about the future, let's see google bring stuff to market and be successful. that's what apple does, brings great products to the market and when they come to market they dominate. google can spread itself thing and talk about future plans, bring the stuff to market and talk about revenue and profits. right now all google generates revenue from is advertising. >> drew, you would concede some of the pie in the sky google is worried for we used to worry about sg & a for those reasons. >> that's understandable. you look at google's track record, the utility they've become with search is unbelievable. maps is an example of apple coming out and stumbling, falling on its face with a product. that, you cannot argue with. their ios maps were bad and embarrassing for them. when people see that
i wish they would do things more like steve jobs. tim cook was great in the conference call in one respect and said we could do a lot of things to create revenue and grab market share. that's not what apple does. i agree with drew's point, i like to hear about the future, let's see google bring stuff to market and be successful. that's what apple does, brings great products to the market and when they come to market they dominate. google can spread itself thing and talk about future plans,...
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Feb 1, 2013
02/13
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>> thank you very much, steve. let's bring in the chief financial economist at jefferys. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. my pleasure. >> now, i think as far as most of the public is concerned, these figures are stub pbornly low. but i guess the good news is, the glass half full argument is the fiscal cliff in december didn't really hurt the employment picture from where we have been. and indeed, the tax rises that we had in january, similarly don't appear to have suppressed the job growth either from that relatively low level. would you agree? >> well, the data is a little bit muddled right now for a variety of reasons, including the fiscal cliff. but i think that what we have seen from the data, and this is including the employment numbers this morning, is that the economy is very resilient. that it's healing. that the labor market is zigzagging in the right direction. i would have been happier if the household survey was as encouraging as the establishment survey. but we've had divergences for most of this recovery. >> let's talk about the employment and cons
>> thank you very much, steve. let's bring in the chief financial economist at jefferys. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. my pleasure. >> now, i think as far as most of the public is concerned, these figures are stub pbornly low. but i guess the good news is, the glass half full argument is the fiscal cliff in december didn't really hurt the employment picture from where we have been. and indeed, the tax rises that we had in january, similarly don't appear to have...
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Jan 24, 2013
01/13
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steve milanovic coming up. don't miss that. >> interesting note. thanks, scott. >>> to the capital markets, gary kaminsky with the man behind the best performing hedge fund. >> i'm joined by metacapital's deepak narula. you were up 41% last year in the managing partner of the fund. we got the five year data to show as well. it has been a very good five years. very good 2012. how did you achieve the results in terms of not just last year, but since the credit crisis? >> thanks, gary. actually maybe step back a little, it wasn't just us. i would say the mortgage hedge fund industry, the group in aggregate posted a good performance. if you look last year, on average, mortgage hedge funds up over 20%. and it is not the first year. it is not surprising because if you look at some of the reasons, they are structural. total capital, that's managed by mortgage hedge fund managers, maybe 60 billions. that's over $10 trillion outstanding. compare that to long sho shore equity managers. the managers have been able to take advantage of. >> in terms of being op
steve milanovic coming up. don't miss that. >> interesting note. thanks, scott. >>> to the capital markets, gary kaminsky with the man behind the best performing hedge fund. >> i'm joined by metacapital's deepak narula. you were up 41% last year in the managing partner of the fund. we got the five year data to show as well. it has been a very good five years. very good 2012. how did you achieve the results in terms of not just last year, but since the credit crisis?...
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Jan 29, 2013
01/13
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steve, over to you. >> simon, thanks. if you're a bull on stocks, this will be a depressing report for you. hour 52 economists and strategists not all that optimistic for the s&p over the remainder of this year. here's where we were close of business yesterday, right around 1500. now, they have raised the outlook for the s&p successively over the course of the year through our surveys. they were down here around 14, 15. now they're at 1505. you can see from now through the summer, they don't see a whole lot happening with stocks. this survey was just taken in the last week. a little bit more optimistic about december 2013, or the end of the year. but from where we are right now, you can see they're only up 3.1%. now, if we push this over to the side, what we can see is maybe the reason is they think stocks will fight a rising ten-year yield environment. we're now 197. at least as of close of business yesterday. by june, a little above 2%. by the end of the year, 2.13%. not a lot. that may be one of the ropes why wall stre
steve, over to you. >> simon, thanks. if you're a bull on stocks, this will be a depressing report for you. hour 52 economists and strategists not all that optimistic for the s&p over the remainder of this year. here's where we were close of business yesterday, right around 1500. now, they have raised the outlook for the s&p successively over the course of the year through our surveys. they were down here around 14, 15. now they're at 1505. you can see from now through the summer,...